Chronic policy of the Friday morning of each morning on luxury Luxury Radio
Yes, Assad is still there and it continues to kill his people. Yes, the dead are in addition to the dead, and the divisions broke out in great day.But the creaking of the coming end of the house Assad are more and more strong. The regime is disintegrating at a rapid pace. Each part, and they are many, takes date and advance its pawns. No doubt that the fall programd the Syrian dictator will have consequences, substantial and predictable as well for his country and for the whole region.
Washington has already, in place of the cells of crisis, both in the Department of State that the Pentagon, which, not only follow events in real time, but also study the various possible scenarios of the after Assad. The strategists of the task forces of the American President, try to anticipate events and take already their provisions. They are preparing a transition that risk, in spite of all precautions, to be chaotic. The Syrian opposition has met in Germany, forty five Syrian intellectuals and experts for floor on the after-Bashar al-Assad. They write a text on a hundred pages, which has the merit to exist. It provides for an elected constituent assembly which will be to propose a presidential system, parliamentary regime or a combination of the two systems, inspired by the Syrian Constitution of 1950.
All the actors have their agenda and sometimes must proceed to revisions of painful. Syria, mosaic complex community, will not prevent an explosion of sectarian violence. The Sunni majority, being radicalized by the repression, worked by the jihadist groups, will take his revenge and the risk of Bloody retaliation is large. Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the one hand, Iran, on the other pamper their Syrian allies, and by groups of combat interposed, play their partition. Given the new that is emerging of the Iran will lose the most and will pose major problems at the Hezbollah. Without Syria, vital link in the Shia arc, the Iran will cut of the Shiite Hezbollah, after having lost the Sunni Hamas, recovered by the Muslim brothers in Egypt.
The Turkish government, as to him, and sailed uneasily between its support to the rebels, the management of refugees and the Kurds that he is fighting. The massive arrival of refugees estimated for the hour to 200,000 potential to destabilize several States in the region: Jordan, Lebanon, and in addition to the turkey, pose problems for Israel who are preparing to receive to the Golan Heights. You will note the extreme caution of the Israeli Government on the subject. The Syrian crisis may be dangerous in all cases of figure. The regional strategic context in which evolved Israel is in the midst of transformation. If the Syrian regime continues, the security of Israel to the north will be ensured, if it falls, it will mark l 'weakening of the Iranian enemy and its lurking informant, the
The Syrian crisis also fanned the fire smouldering in Lebanon, which had become a real volcano. It poses questions existentialists to Hezbollah: will he negotiate its disarmament and become the major political party in Lebanon, should he seek the confrontation and do a OPA on the country, prior to taking the weakening unavoidable because of the loss of support of Damascus? Hizbullah is not only a relay of the Iran and Syria to Assad, but also a political party which exercised a considerable influence. He will have to choose. At the international level, the Federation will have made a bad calculation by supporting, against winds and tides, President Bashar al-Assad. It will be left to the box Start in his quest to recover his stature of a great power in the Arab world.
One thing is certain, the Middle East will no longer be the same, and the strategies of each other, to completely rethink.
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