31 August 2012

THE after Assad has already begun

Chronic policy of the Friday morning of each morning on luxury Luxury Radio

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Yes, Assad is still there and it continues to kill his people. Yes, the dead are in addition to the dead, and the divisions broke out in great day.But the creaking of the coming end of the house Assad are more and more strong. The regime is disintegrating at a rapid pace. Each part, and they are many, takes date and advance its pawns. No doubt that the fall programd the Syrian dictator will have consequences, substantial and predictable as well for his country and for the whole region.

Washington has already, in place of the cells of crisis, both in the Department of State that the Pentagon, which, not only follow events in real time, but also study the various possible scenarios of the after Assad. The strategists of the task forces of the American President, try to anticipate events and take already their provisions. They are preparing a transition that risk, in spite of all precautions, to be chaotic. The Syrian opposition has met in Germany, forty five Syrian intellectuals and experts for floor on the after-Bashar al-Assad. They write a text on a hundred pages, which has the merit to exist. It provides for an elected constituent assembly which will be to propose a presidential system, parliamentary regime or a combination of the two systems, inspired by the Syrian Constitution of 1950.

All the actors have their agenda and sometimes must proceed to revisions of painful. Syria, mosaic complex community, will not prevent an explosion of sectarian violence. The Sunni majority, being radicalized by the repression, worked by the jihadist groups, will take his revenge and the risk of Bloody retaliation is large. Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the one hand, Iran, on the other pamper their Syrian allies, and by groups of combat interposed, play their partition. Given the new that is emerging of the Iran will lose the most and will pose major problems at the Hezbollah. Without Syria, vital link in the Shia arc, the Iran will cut of the Shiite Hezbollah, after having lost the Sunni Hamas, recovered by the Muslim brothers in Egypt.

The Turkish government, as to him, and sailed uneasily between its support to the rebels, the management of refugees and the Kurds that he is fighting. The massive arrival of refugees estimated for the hour to 200,000 potential to destabilize several States in the region: Jordan, Lebanon, and in addition to the turkey, pose problems for Israel who are preparing to receive to the Golan Heights. You will note the extreme caution of the Israeli Government on the subject. The Syrian crisis may be dangerous in all cases of figure. The regional strategic context in which evolved Israel is in the midst of transformation. If the Syrian regime continues, the security of Israel to the north will be ensured, if it falls, it will mark l 'weakening of the Iranian enemy and its lurking informant, the

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Hezbollah.

The Syrian crisis also fanned the fire smouldering in Lebanon, which had become a real volcano. It poses questions existentialists to Hezbollah: will he negotiate its disarmament and become the major political party in Lebanon, should he seek the confrontation and do a OPA on the country, prior to taking the weakening unavoidable because of the loss of support of Damascus? Hizbullah is not only a relay of the Iran and Syria to Assad, but also a political party which exercised a considerable influence. He will have to choose. At the international level, the Federation will have made a bad calculation by supporting, against winds and tides, President Bashar al-Assad. It will be left to the box Start in his quest to recover his stature of a great power in the Arab world.

One thing is certain, the Middle East will no longer be the same, and the strategies of each other, to completely rethink.

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24 August 2012

America: the gold rush black

The chronic political of the Friday morning of each morning on luxury Luxury Radio

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The American dream, at the State level, has been for more than forty years: energy independence.the entire foreign policy of Washington, has always been and still is, the securing of its sources of supply, mainly oil.

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The support to the monarchies of the golf course to the military expeditions, in passing by the alliances against nature, the oil has always been the master password and the key to all the puzzles diplomatic of the successive governments of the United States. The domestic oil production, if it represents a significant volume, has never given the Americans this independence sought for so long. The low price of oil, until a short time, have always discouraged and slowed down the search to other sources in the country. Today, it is a revolution that is in the process of transforming the American economy, and that risk to transform the whole American strategy, the geopolitical consequences immeasurable. Grace to the exploitation of deposits previously unattainable of gas and oil from shale, the Americans are on the path of this energy independence, both sought.

There has been a real rush to the black gold. It drilled everywhere, Texas of course, but also in Alaska, North Dakota, New Mexico, Utah and in many other States taken in the fever of the drilling and to search for oil. In an economy that does not happen again to get out of the crisis, these farms, generating jobs, are encouraged, both by the governments of States, and by the federal government. The America is moving toward a discount in question to its geopolitical strategy, and a complete overhaul of its relations with a number of Arab countries, especially in the Middle East. Washington has already reduced its imports from the countries of the OPEC, of more than 25% and is oriented blithely toward the 30% of decline.

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Washington, exporter of gas, is no longer a view of the spirit, and the 10 million barrels day, the equivalent of the production of Saudi Arabia, are coming soon. The America will revise its alliances in the golf course, all the more easily, that Israel has, today, reached its energy independence. For Washington, the prospect of its energy independence, will bring in a radical revision of its priorities. There is already a reorientation of its policy on the military strategies of the White House. After the States of the golf, this is the Europe who will no longer be that a market as another. Mainly oriented to the Pacific, it is China who is going to be the center of the geopolitics of Washington, which of course, will develop and strengthen its alliances with the countries bordering on the sea of China. It is the era of a new America that we are going to attend.

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17 August 2012

Egypt: the president Morsi mutiny

Chronic policy of the Friday morning on luxury Radio

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Sunday 12 August, Mohamed Morsi took the Egyptians by surprise by announcing the retirement of the marshal Tantaoui - minister of defense and chief of the Supreme Council of the armed forces. The arm of iron between the army and the Brotherhood of the Muslim Brothers, dominated the political and social life in Egypt, by its twists in a constitutional disorder. The president Morsi has also canceled the constitutional declaration of the Supreme Council of the armed forces, and was granted the power to legislate, pending the election of a new parliament. Its exorbitant powers do not exist for the time that on the paper, the absence of a Constitution does not enlighten on the real prerogatives of the function. In addition to the minister of defense, the dismissal is also the chief of staff and number 2 of the AFSC, Sami Enari, and the heads of the three branches of the armed forces, earth, air, sea. Given for dull and clears, the president Morsi begun here, a maneuver apparently daring, which is an attempt to resume in hand on the military institution. It should be noted that these changes at the head of the army, dramatic as they are, were done in coordination and with the agreement of the military. It is Morsi itself which confirms the information. Also, it should be noted that all the removed have received important posts, such as Tantaoui - appointed presidential adviser, as well as Sami Erani, or of very lucrative positions, as Mohab Mamich, chief of the navy, appointed to head the directorate of the Suez canal.

No doubt that these decisions have received the endorsement of the great American sponsor as well as the other funder that became the Qatar. It should be noted that shortly before the announcement of these decisions, Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, and Leon Paneta, secretary of defense, in Washington, were in Cairo, just as the Emir of Qatar. These changes are, by contrast, a hard blow for the Saudi Arabia who lives badly the ascension of the Muslim Brothers, competitors of his religious leadership. It is also a bad news for the Israelis, who are powerless to the departure of all their contacts.

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What will now be the reaction of the military on the new powers that has granted the President, that is going to say the all-powerful High Constitutional Court? Even if the military considered that it is a generational change, that the elevator in the military promotion has resumed its market, it is no less true that the president Morsi has scored points, paring the powers of the military, in a search for a balance more positive for the civil power. Shade of the table, the appointment of the vice-president. It is the judge Mahmoud Mekki, one of the ringleader of the sling of judges against the Mubarak regime in 2005, who won the seat. Shade of the table, because at the time of his election, Morsi had promised to choose a woman and a Coptic as vice-presidents, in order to reassure the Christian minority and those who fear the establishment of an Islamic order.

However it is still far from the end of the military regime.It is hoped that this arm of iron, with its successive blows of theater, to come to an end quickly, and that this balance between military power and civilian power, is quickly found.It is time that Egypt must resume its place in the Middle East, and that the current chaos, left the place in a social peace in a political climate economy soothes and a discount on the rails.

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10 August 2012

The mysteries of the death of Arafat

Chronic policy of the Friday morning on luxury Radio

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Each year, the thesis of the poisoning of the Palestinian President, Yasser Arafat, is in the media, particularly of the Qatari television channel, Al Jazeera. This time, it is with the polonium that could have poisoned the Rais. This product, is only accessible to a nuclear power, under heard Israel. Suha Arafat, widow of the Palestinian President, who filed a complaint against X, stressed that it is not accusing the Hebrew State, but wants to know the truth.

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The Israelis had no interest to remove Yasser Arafat. Four years after the second intifada, deducted in its Mouquata'a of Ramallah, encircled by the Israeli army, it is very weakened, as well in the territories that from overseas legations. The Hebrew State had beautiful game to declare, that he had no valid and credible partner with whom to negotiate. Then, if there has been poisoning who had interest to do so? In July 2009, Farouk Kadoumi, leader of the PLO political department, Tunisian since his retirement, had accused, on the same string Qatari, Mahmoud Abbas and Mohamed Dahlane.

Today, Souha, in an interview, told me that an American journalist came to see. He said he was investigating for ten years on the real causes of the deaths of President Arafat. Convinced, it gives him the last effects of Arafat, who were sleeping in a cardboard for ten years.The latter, demonstrating a high level of intuition, sends directly and immediately these effects to the radiological institute in Lausanne, Switzerland, expert on the problems of radiation. The results of the analyzes conclude to a abnormally high dose of polonium, still present, despite the time elapsed since the death of Palestinian leader.

The foundation Arafat, having made public its complete medical record on the Internet, several French experts have analyzed. Given the quality and dimension of the character, the doctors to indiscutees skills, at the military hospital in Percy, have not wanted to make assumptions. If this document does not conclude clearly on an accurate diagnosis, however, it can offer a number of information that contradicts the thesis of the polonium poisoning. According to these experts, the Palestinian leader died of severe blood clotting disorders linked to a drop in platelets, in other words, of red blood cells, associated with a significant disruption of hepatitis and functions of digestive disorders. :Gold the polonium poisoning causes

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Different symptoms. That said the professor Roland Earth, a member of the Academy of Medicine, a specialist in the radioactivity, I quote: "the intoxication to the polonium caused a general radiation, with the strife that is well known. The first symptoms occur on average a week after the intoxication and are reflected in an alteration of the mucosa of the intestine with loss of water and bloody diarrhea. In addition, the internal radiation reaches the bone marrow and then causes a anemia with an early fall of the white blood cells. " End of quote.The polonium is a radioactive substance that is rapidly disintegrating with the time. However, if low doses have been found on the effects of Arafat, and that would be the trace of a contamination of ten years ago, the administered dose has the be massive, in the order of 500,000 times higher, for it is still detectable today. Arafat would not been irradiated but would become radiating.

Then Arafat, if he has been poisoned, it is by what, by whom? The mystery remains integer.has there been a settlement of account interpalestinien? It may be noted that the disappearance of Yasser Arafat end of 2004, favored the entry of Hamas on the front of the political scene and the advent of Mahmoud Abbas at the head of the Palestinian Authority.

Most of the great men have a tragic end or unexplained. This death which the causes are imprecise or mysterious, is part of the myth of the icons of peoples.Arafat would have liked that there is less talk of his death, and more of his work, namely, the creation of the Palestinian people and the gathering of all the families in this concept, the Nation.Let the mythical father of the Palestinian nation, the secret of his death.

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04 August 2012

Israel/Palestine, a few figures to meditate

The figures are often revealing. They are stubborn and insist to bring to light, what some would like silence. I offer for your meditation a few. They speak for themselves, and provide a long speech.

See for yourself.

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The population of Israel amounted to 7.740 million with almost two million Palestinians are benefiting from the Israeli nationality, or simple residents in East Jerusalem. A little more than a million Israelis resides outside of Israel (the United States, Canada, Europe, essentially).

The Palestinian population, living on the occupied territories, amounts to 4.3 million, of which 2.75 million in the West Bank and 1.54 million in the Gaza Strip. The density is 450 persons per km2 in the West Bank and 4279 persons per km2 in the Gaza Strip. The density for Israel is of 350 inhabitants per km2. Israel and the occupied territories have a density comparable to that of India, that is, one of the more high of the world. 48.6 per cent of the Palestinian population has less than 18 years. The literacy rate of young Palestinians (15-24 years) is 99 %. It should be noted that 19% of the budget of the Palestinian Authority is intended to education.

The Palestinian Authority received international assistance since the Oslo accords.After the Sudan, Palestine was in 2010, the second largest recipient of international aid in the world.From 1994 to 2009, the European Union has given 4.26 billion euros, figures which must be added a direct aid of the France of EUR 260 million.In 2011, the international community has given 1.12 billion euros to the Palestinian Authority. In 2012, the aid of the European Union is expected to more than 300 million euros.

We cannot talk about the settlements, even as a figure. Since the signing of the Oslo accords, the settler population has increased from 268,756 to 518,974 in 2010, an increase of 51 %, 80% of the settlers live in a perimeter of 25 km around Jerusalem.In 2011, there were more buildings by person in the colonies than in Israel.

Other figures must not pass under silence:

- During the operation "Cast Lead" 18 schools have been destroyed.

- Since the beginning of the second intifada, in 2000, nearly 7500 Palestinian children, between 12 and 17 years, were arrested and imprisoned.

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- According to the Israeli Committee Against House Demolitions, at least 24,813 houses were demolished in Palestine since 1967.

- In April 2012, the pic monthly record of 54 demolitions has been reached.

- The number of settler attacks per week in 2011, has increased by 40% compared to 2010 and from 165% compared to 2009.

These figures illustrate the policy of the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, but also the battle of demography that the Palestinians are in the process of winning.

Sources: UN, EU, UNRWA, Platform of NGOS french for Palestine.

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03 August 2012

The Tunisian President assassinated the UMA

Chronic policy of the Friday morning on luxury Radio

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Last Monday, on the occasion of the feast of the throne, His Majesty Mohamed VI is directed to the Moroccan people.The first teaching that one gets from its address, it is "that there is a driver in the plane", and all the pessimists who declare that the you don't know where you are going, should analyze and meditate the royal message.In the first place, the events that the Morocco has just to live, in fact, a great leap forward in the democracy, the rule of law and social justice, are not the result of chance, nor the product of circumstances.

The message insists on the continuation of a policy, I quote: "well-thought out strategy and a gradual ", end of quote.Assuming the prerogatives, data to him by the new Constitution, His Majesty analysis the different steps, and trace to the executive, the guidelines to follow and the priorities.The Sovereign does not fail to remind, for those who have not integrated, that Sunni Islam advocates the just middle, tolerance and prescribed extremism, fanaticism and the ostracism. It is hoped that some ministers PJD, the Salafist and other activists of the wall will have received the message.

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It is not in my comment here, to decrypt the statements of His Majesty, the King Mohamed VI. It is hoped that those who govern us, as well as the leaders of the political parties, will have to implement in music, the partition described by the Sovereign.No, I would like to refer to the passage devoted to the Maghreb Union. His Majesty wishes, I quote: "that this project kind of immobility and him either print a dynamic carrier of a sustainable and integrated development ", end of quote.To do this, it is necessary that the partners concerned, silence their resentments and regrets, and above all, respect the schemes in place, and as far as we are concerned, the Moroccan monarchy.

In effect, three days before the feast of the throne, the Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki, speaking to the elected representatives of the Tunisian constituent, in the presence of the Ambassador of Morocco, said, I quote: "the monarchy, even if she cohabited with values of equality, individual freedoms and other human rights, remains a contradiction regime with democracy, and that at the head of the State is found a citizen who has a right which he is the sole depositary, there remains for life and transmits it to a heir of his choice without the people having a say "End of quote.

Certain have the character Marzouki as a naive, see an idealist. I believe above all that he is neither a politician, nor a diplomat, even less, a head of State.When that is declared Urbi et Orbi, that one is for the Maghreb Union, and this, as soon as possible, it must be said, more, that he murdered rather the Union, because the indispensable precondition, is the respect of its potential future partners.forced to conclude that the President of the Republic of Tunisia, has, through his remarks, to plunge the UMA in a much more profound lethargy.

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